A Regional Economic Overview & State of the County Report
Thursday, March 11, 12:00 noon, ATC Polytech Center
$15.00 per person (Lunch catered by Sybil’s Family Resturant)
For more information contact the Chamber / IDA office at 427-2028
The outlook for the economy of Georgia’s Coastal Corner in 2010 has some good news and some bad news. The good news is: 2010 will be a better year for the economy of the Coastal Corner than 2009 was. The bad news is: 2010 will still be a tough year.
On the plus side, there are signs that the Coastal Corner – Brantley, Camden, Glynn, McIntosh, and Wayne counties -- has turned the corner on the recession. Hospitality and tourism activity is beginning to pick up in Glynn County. Many retailers in coastal counties are also beginning to report increases in sales. Volume at the Port of Brunswick has increased substantially over the past several months.
On the minus side, the construction and real estate sectors continue to be depressed. Building permits for both residential and commercial projects are at their lowest levels in more than 15 years for our coastal counties. They are at their lowest levels in more than 50 years in Georgia and the nation. On top of that bad news, the inventory of unsold homes and vacant commercial space remains alarmingly high.
Apart from construction and real estate, however, the Coastal Corner should continue its recovery from the recession in 2010. As it does, we should keep a couple things in mind.
First, it is going to take time, a substantial amount of time, for our economy to recover from this recession. Don’t let economic language confuse you. A recession is the span of time in which the general level of economic activity is contracting. A recession is over when the general level of economic activity stops contracting and begins to increase.
In other words, the end of a recession does not mean the economy is “back to normal” – that is, back to the condition it was in before the recession started. The economy is recovering, but it’s still in bad shape. A silly analogy perhaps, but it’s like recovering from the flu: you feel better – and relieved you’ve turned the corner – but you’re weak and run down and need a few days before you’re back to your old self.
And this was a serious recession, the most severe downturn since the Great Depression (though nowhere near as severe as that). It will take well more than a year for even our coastal economy, which has been notoriously resilient, to return to the condition it was in before the recession hit.
Second, typically the last sector of the economy to begin its recovery is, unfortunately, the labor market. Businesses are typically very slow to begin hiring again after a recession. Many firms cut worker hours during the recession; they will build those hours back up before they hire new workers. They also want to be sure the recovery is for real before they start adding to their payrolls.
In all, 2010 should be a better year for the economy of the Coastal Corner. But the recovery is likely to be painfully slow.
Don Mathews, Ph.D.
Don Mathews is a Professor of Economics at the College of Coastal Georgia. Mathews received a doctoral degree in economics from Georgia State University in 1993. He has published 33 articles and essays in both professional and economic journals. In 1998 Mr. Matthews was selected Professor of the Year by the College of Coastal Georgia. Recently, Dr. Mathews was a featured speaker at the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business 17th Annual Coastal Georgia Economic Outlook.